Al Bataeh 1-1 Ajman – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ajman at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Bataeh vs Ajman encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 20 as Al Bataeh welcome Ajman to Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 5 April 2025 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Bataeh have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L D W D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Al Bataeh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Bataeh's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.90 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium this season.
Ajman — All Games: 6W 0D 4L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ajman, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ajman's away record: 3W 0D 7L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al Bataeh 1.50 PPG, Ajman 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The previous 5 encounters between these sides heavily favour Ajman, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Al Bataeh.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2024, ended 1–2 with Ajman winning.
It is worth noting that Ajman have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Al Bataeh in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Ajman in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Bataeh 67% and Ajman 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Bataeh 67% | Ajman 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Bataeh 1.30 xG and Ajman 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Bataeh attack 0.806 / defence 1.252 | Ajman attack 0.893 / defence 1.062. League average goals — home 1.518 / away 1.267. Data: 45 Al Bataeh games / 45 Ajman games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Bataeh 34% | Draw 26% | Ajman 40%. Fair-value odds: Al Bataeh 2.94 | Draw 3.85 | Ajman 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ajman at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ajman offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.72 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al Bataeh 60% | Ajman 40%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Bataeh vs Ajman | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Apr 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Bataeh 34% | Draw 26% | Ajman 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Al Bataeh 1.30 / Ajman 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Al Bataeh attack 0.806 / def 1.252 | Ajman attack 0.893 / def 1.062 | league avg home 1.518 / away 1.267 • Poisson stance: Ajman (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Al Bataeh xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Ajman xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Bataeh vs Ajman kick off?
Al Bataeh vs Ajman kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 5 April 2025 at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Bataeh vs Ajman?
Al Bataeh 1 - 1 Ajman.
Where is Al Bataeh vs Ajman being played?
The match is being played at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium.
What competition is Al Bataeh vs Ajman part of?
Al Bataeh vs Ajman is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Bataeh vs Ajman?
Our statistical model gives Al Bataeh a 34% chance of winning, Ajman a 40% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Ajman the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Bataeh vs Ajman?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Al Bataeh and Ajman will score (BTTS).
Will Al Bataeh vs Ajman have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Bataeh and Ajman?
Record (5 meetings): Al Bataeh 0W | Draws 2 | Ajman 3W.
What form are Al Bataeh and Ajman in?
Al Bataeh (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-D-W. Ajman (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al Bataeh's attack at 0.81x the league average against Ajman's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ajman's attack versus Al Bataeh's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 0-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ajman Win
34%
2.90
26%
3.90
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Al Bataeh xG
Total xG
2.72
1.42
Ajman xG
2.90
34%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
24%
4.12
27%
3.67
Win to Nil
8%
11.96
11%
9.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 9.4 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.2 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.9 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Bataeh vs Ajman?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Al Bataeh and Ajman expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Al Bataeh and 1.42 for Ajman, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Bataeh vs Ajman?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 45 outings, Al Bataeh have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 15W 11D 19L record — L-D-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al Bataeh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ajman's form line: 15W 12D 18L from 45 games, 1.27 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-L. The sample for Ajman is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Bataeh on 1.24 PPG, Ajman on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al Bataeh have posted 1.00 PPG from 22 outings (5W 7D 10L).
On the road, Ajman have gone 7W 6D 9L from 22 away games — 1.23 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Bataeh are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Ajman are on 1.51 scored and 1.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Bataeh have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Ajman in 60%.
Last 45 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Bataeh
Blended
Ajman
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Bataeh and Ajman in coming into this match?
Al Bataeh have gone 15W 11D 19L in their last 45 games (1.24 PPG), while Ajman have gone 15W 12D 18L in their last 45 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Bataeh at home or Ajman away?
Ajman's away record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Bataeh at home: 1.00 PPG; Ajman away: 1.23 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 10 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Al Bataeh's record when hosting Ajman specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Al Bataeh
3
Draws
4
Ajman
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Bataeh and Ajman?
From 8 meetings on record, Al Bataeh have won 1, Ajman have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al Bataeh and Ajman last play each other?
They last met on 10 March 2026, when Al Bataeh 1-0 Ajman.
Who has won more matches between Al Bataeh and Ajman?
Ajman have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Bataeh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Ajman are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al Bataeh at 73%, Ajman at 59%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Al Bataeh) and 50% (Ajman). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ajman in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Bataeh home games / Ajman away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Bataeh play Ajman?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Al Bataeh's games and 59% of Ajman's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Bataeh vs Ajman usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Al Bataeh's matches and 50% of Ajman's.
Do Al Bataeh and Ajman tend to score early?
Al Bataeh have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Ajman in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Bataeh and Ajman share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Bataeh and Ajman finished level at 1-1 at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Bataeh 1.30 xG and Ajman 1.42 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Bataeh attack 0.81 / defence 1.25 against Ajman attack 0.89 / defence 1.06, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Bataeh 34% | Draw 26% | Ajman 40%, with Ajman to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Bataeh 67%, Ajman 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Bataeh's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Ajman's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Bataeh 1.24 PPG, Ajman 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al Bataeh (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.05 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.