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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Al Ain edge out Sharjah FC 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Ain beat Sharjah FC 1-0 at Tahnoun Bin Mohamed Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Ain 1.88 xG and Sharjah FC 0.91 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al Ain fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Sharjah FC landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Ain attack 1.30 / defence 0.69 against Sharjah FC attack 0.99 / defence 1.12, drawn from 36/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Ain 60% | Draw 22% | Sharjah FC 18%, with Al Ain to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Ain 65%, Sharjah FC 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Ain's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.

Sharjah FC's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al Ain 1.88 PPG, Sharjah FC 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Ain win broke the near-deadlock. Al Ain (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.06 scoring average — below par going forward. Sharjah FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.59 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights