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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Al Ain defy the odds to beat Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Ain beat Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 3-2 at Tahnoun Bin Mohamed Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Ain 0.91 xG and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.37 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Al Ain beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Ain attack 1.12 / defence 0.67 against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.54 / defence 0.57, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Ain 25% | Draw 28% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 47%, with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Al Ain win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Ain 62%, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Ain's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al Ain 2.06 PPG, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Ain win broke the near-deadlock. Al Ain (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.09 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights