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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Shabab Al Ahli Dubai defy the odds to beat Al Ain 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai beat Al Ain 0-1 at Hazza Bin Zayed Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Ain 1.68 xG and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.49 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al Ain fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Ain attack 1.01 / defence 0.81 against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.25 / defence 0.85, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Ain 40% | Draw 28% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 32%, with Al Ain to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Shabab Al Ahli Dubai win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 76% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Ain 69%, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 83%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Ain's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.78. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al Ain (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.47 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights