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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Al Ain run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Khorfakkan.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Ain beat Khorfakkan 3-0 at Tahnoun Bin Mohamed Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Ain 1.89 xG and Khorfakkan 1.12 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Al Ain beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Khorfakkan landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Ain attack 1.11 / defence 0.92 against Khorfakkan attack 0.97 / defence 1.21, drawn from 29/29 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Al Ain 55% | Draw 22% | Khorfakkan 22%, with Al Ain to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Ain 69%, Khorfakkan 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Ain's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.

Khorfakkan's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Al Ain arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.28. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al Ain (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.14 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. Khorfakkan (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights