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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Al Ain run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Baniyas SC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Ain beat Baniyas SC 4-0 at Tahnoun Bin Mohamed Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Ain 1.64 xG and Baniyas SC 0.83 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Al Ain beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Baniyas SC landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Ain attack 1.21 / defence 0.83 against Baniyas SC attack 0.81 / defence 1.06, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Ain 57% | Draw 24% | Baniyas SC 19%, with Al Ain to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Ain 68%, Baniyas SC 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Ain's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Baniyas SC's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Al Ain arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 0.87. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al Ain (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. Baniyas SC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights