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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al Ain and Al Wahda FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Tahnoun Bin Mohamed Stadium, Regular Season - 13, as Al Ain and Al Wahda FC drew 2-2 in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Ain 1.31 xG and Al Wahda FC 0.76 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Al Wahda FC outscored their 0.76 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Ain attack 1.23 / defence 0.62 against Al Wahda FC attack 0.91 / defence 0.84, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Ain 49% | Draw 29% | Al Wahda FC 22%, with Al Ain to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Ain 66%, Al Wahda FC 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Ain's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Al Wahda FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al Ain 1.95 PPG, Al Wahda FC 1.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al Ain (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Wahda FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights