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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Al Ain run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Al Nasr.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Ain beat Al Nasr 4-1 at Hazza Bin Zayed Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Ain 1.97 xG and Al Nasr 1.15 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Al Ain beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Ain attack 0.94 / defence 0.81 against Al Nasr attack 1.02 / defence 1.14, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Ain 54% | Draw 25% | Al Nasr 20%, with Al Ain to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Ain 68%, Al Nasr 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Ain's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Al Nasr's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al Ain 1.68 PPG, Al Nasr 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Ain win broke the near-deadlock. Al Ain (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.11 average — above their attacking norm. Al Nasr (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.84 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.84 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights