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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al Ain cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Al-Ittihad Kalba.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Ain beat Al-Ittihad Kalba 3-1 at Hazza Bin Zayed Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Ain 1.85 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.10 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Al Ain beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Ain attack 1.15 / defence 0.80 against Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.95 / defence 0.91, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Ain 54% | Draw 24% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 22%, with Al Ain to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Ain 71%, Al-Ittihad Kalba 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Ain's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Al Ain arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.15. Form held, and they took the win. Al Ain (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. Al-Ittihad Kalba (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights