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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Ajman defy the odds to beat Sharjah FC 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ajman beat Sharjah FC 3-2 at Ajman Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajman 0.90 xG and Sharjah FC 1.43 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Ajman beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajman attack 0.76 / defence 0.91 against Sharjah FC attack 1.08 / defence 0.92, drawn from 42/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ajman 24% | Draw 27% | Sharjah FC 49%, with Sharjah FC to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Ajman win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajman 54%, Sharjah FC 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ajman's trading profile (41 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Sharjah FC's trading profile (41 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Sharjah FC arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 1.24. Form was overturned, with Ajman winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ajman (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm. Sharjah FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights