Ajman vs Sharjah FC – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Sharjah FC edge out Ajman 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sharjah FC beat Ajman 0-1 at Ajman Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajman 1.53 xG and Sharjah FC 1.55 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Ajman fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajman attack 0.99 / defence 0.85 against Sharjah FC attack 1.21 / defence 0.83, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ajman 34% | Draw 30% | Sharjah FC 36%, with Sharjah FC to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajman 59%, Sharjah FC 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ajman's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Sharjah FC's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Sharjah FC arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.15. Form held, and they took the win. Ajman (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward. Sharjah FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.24 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights