Ajman 0-1 Sharjah FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sharjah FC (36%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Ajman face Sharjah FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 9 as Ajman welcome Sharjah FC to Ajman Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 8 December 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Ajman have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ajman, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ajman's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Ajman Stadium this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Ajman are significantly better at Ajman Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Sharjah FC — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sharjah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sharjah FC's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Sharjah FC's 2.50 PPG return is 1.60 points per game ahead of Ajman's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Ajman, 3 for Sharjah FC and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 May 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Ajman trading profile (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Sharjah FC trading profile (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ajman 62% and Sharjah FC 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ajman 59% | Sharjah FC 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ajman 1.53 xG and Sharjah FC 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ajman attack 0.990 / defence 0.848 | Sharjah FC attack 1.206 / defence 0.828. League average goals — home 1.866 / away 1.518. Sharjah FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.206 — the away xG of 1.55 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 34 Ajman games / 34 Sharjah FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ajman 34% | Draw 30% | Sharjah FC 36%. Fair-value odds: Ajman 2.94 | Draw 3.33 | Sharjah FC 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.53 / 1.55) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sharjah FC are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sharjah FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.08 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: Ajman 70% | Sharjah FC 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ajman vs Sharjah FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Ajman Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Dec 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ajman 34% | Draw 30% | Sharjah FC 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 65% | xG Ajman 1.53 / Sharjah FC 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Ajman attack 0.990 / def 0.848 | Sharjah FC attack 1.206 / def 0.828 | league avg home 1.866 / away 1.518 • Poisson stance: Sharjah FC (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Ajman xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Sharjah FC xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ajman vs Sharjah FC kick off?
Ajman vs Sharjah FC kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 8 December 2024 at Ajman Stadium.
What was the final score in Ajman vs Sharjah FC?
Ajman 0 - 1 Sharjah FC.
Where is Ajman vs Sharjah FC being played?
The match is being played at Ajman Stadium.
What competition is Ajman vs Sharjah FC part of?
Ajman vs Sharjah FC is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Ajman vs Sharjah FC?
Our statistical model gives Ajman a 34% chance of winning, Sharjah FC a 36% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Sharjah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ajman vs Sharjah FC?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Ajman and Sharjah FC will score (BTTS).
Will Ajman vs Sharjah FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ajman and Sharjah FC?
Record (6 meetings): Ajman 1W | Draws 2 | Sharjah FC 3W.
What form are Ajman and Sharjah FC in?
Ajman (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Sharjah FC (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Ajman vs Sharjah FC?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Ajman's attack rating (0.99) and Sharjah FC's defence rating (0.83), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sharjah FC's attack versus Ajman's defence, projects 1.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sharjah FC Win
34%
2.90
30%
3.33
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Ajman xG
Total xG
3.08
1.55
Sharjah FC xG
2.90
34%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.84
Clean Sheet
21%
4.73
22%
4.61
Win to Nil
7%
13.72
8%
12.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 7.1 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 10.9 | 8.5 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.3 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ajman vs Sharjah FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Ajman and Sharjah FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Ajman and 1.55 for Sharjah FC, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Ajman vs Sharjah FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ajman's recent record stands at 9W 12D 13L from 34 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Ajman is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sharjah FC, meanwhile, have gone 17W 12D 5L across 34 games — 1.85 PPG, with W-W-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Sharjah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sharjah FC by 0.70 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ajman heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Ajman have managed 5W 5D 7L from 17 games — 1.18 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sharjah FC's away record stands at 9W 5D 3L across 17 trips, a 1.88 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sharjah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ajman are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Sharjah FC are on 2.18 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ajman have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Sharjah FC in 74%.
Last 34 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ajman
Blended
Sharjah FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ajman and Sharjah FC in coming into this match?
Ajman have gone 9W 12D 13L in their last 34 games (1.15 PPG), while Sharjah FC have gone 17W 12D 5L in their last 34 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ajman at home or Sharjah FC away?
Sharjah FC's away record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ajman at home: 1.18 PPG; Sharjah FC away: 1.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Ajman have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Feb 2023, when Sharjah FC won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ajman's record when hosting Sharjah FC specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Ajman
2
Draws
5
Sharjah FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ajman and Sharjah FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Ajman have won 3, Sharjah FC have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ajman and Sharjah FC last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when Ajman 3-2 Sharjah FC.
Who has won more matches between Ajman and Sharjah FC?
Sharjah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ajman are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Sharjah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Ajman at 53%, Sharjah FC at 82%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Ajman and 65% for Sharjah FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 59% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ajman have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ajman home games / Sharjah FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ajman play Sharjah FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Ajman's games and 82% of Sharjah FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ajman vs Sharjah FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Ajman's matches and 65% of Sharjah FC's.
Do Ajman and Sharjah FC tend to score early?
Ajman have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Sharjah FC in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sharjah FC edge out Ajman 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sharjah FC beat Ajman 0-1 at Ajman Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajman 1.53 xG and Sharjah FC 1.55 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Ajman fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajman attack 0.99 / defence 0.85 against Sharjah FC attack 1.21 / defence 0.83, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ajman 34% | Draw 30% | Sharjah FC 36%, with Sharjah FC to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajman 59%, Sharjah FC 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ajman's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sharjah FC's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Sharjah FC arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.15. Form held, and they took the win. Ajman (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward. Sharjah FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.24 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.