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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Shabab Al Ahli Dubai edge out Ajman 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai beat Ajman 0-1 at Ajman Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajman 0.59 xG and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.59 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajman attack 0.76 / defence 0.99 against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.21 / defence 0.57, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ajman 14% | Draw 25% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 62%, with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajman 51%, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ajman's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai arrived the stronger side — 2.44 PPG against 1.15. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Ajman (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.74 scoring average — below par going forward. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights