Ajman 4-3 Hatta SC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Ajman at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ajman vs Hatta SC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ajman and Hatta SC meet at Ajman Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 22 August 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Ajman (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Ajman have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ajman have posted 2W 4D 4L at Ajman Stadium — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Hatta SC's overall Pro League record this term: 0W 0D 1L from 1 games (0.00 PPG). Last five: L. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Hatta SC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form ledger tips toward Ajman. A 1.20 PPG lead over Hatta SC (1.20 vs 0.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Ajman lead 0W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 5 May 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ajman 1.72 xG and Hatta SC 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ajman attack 0.972 / defence 0.973 | Hatta SC attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.539 / away 1.741. Data: 27 Ajman games / 1 Hatta SC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Ajman 44% | Draw 23% | Hatta SC 32%. Fair-value odds: Ajman 2.27 | Draw 4.35 | Hatta SC 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.72 / 1.44) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
Form averages suggest only ~1.4 goals/game but Poisson projects Over 2.5 at 61% — underlying attack/defence strengths imply more goals than surface form shows.
On the Poisson output, Ajman are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ajman if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.16 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ajman vs Hatta SC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Ajman Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Aug 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ajman 44% | Draw 23% | Hatta SC 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG Ajman 1.72 / Hatta SC 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Ajman attack 0.972 / def 0.973 | Hatta SC attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.539 / away 1.741 • Poisson stance: Ajman (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Ajman xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Hatta SC xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ajman vs Hatta SC kick off?
Ajman vs Hatta SC kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 22 August 2026 at Ajman Stadium.
What was the final score in Ajman vs Hatta SC?
Ajman 4 - 3 Hatta SC.
Where is Ajman vs Hatta SC being played?
The match is being played at Ajman Stadium.
What competition is Ajman vs Hatta SC part of?
Ajman vs Hatta SC is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Ajman vs Hatta SC?
Our statistical model gives Ajman a 44% chance of winning, Hatta SC a 32% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Ajman the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ajman vs Hatta SC?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Ajman and Hatta SC will score (BTTS).
Will Ajman vs Hatta SC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ajman and Hatta SC?
Record (2 meetings): Ajman 0W | Draws 2 | Hatta SC 0W.
What form are Ajman and Hatta SC in?
Ajman (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-D-W. Hatta SC (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Ajman's attack at 0.97x the league average against Hatta SC's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.72 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Hatta SC's attack (0.85x) against Ajman's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.44.
The sample (27/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ajman Win
44%
2.26
23%
4.28
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Ajman xG
Total xG
3.16
1.44
Hatta SC xG
2.26
44%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.68
Clean Sheet
24%
4.22
18%
5.58
Win to Nil
11%
9.51
6%
17.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 6.1 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 10.5 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 9.0 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.2 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ajman vs Hatta SC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Ajman and Hatta SC expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Ajman and 1.44 for Hatta SC, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Ajman vs Hatta SC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ajman come into this having played 1 games, going 1W 0D 0L for 3.00 points per game. Their last five reads W. It's still early in the season for Ajman, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Hatta SC sit at 0.00 PPG from 1 outings (0W 0D 1L), a run that reads L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Hatta SC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ajman carry the stronger recent form of the two, 3.00 PPG clear of Hatta SC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Attack vs Defence
Ajman are averaging 3.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Hatta SC are on 0.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ajman have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Hatta SC in 0%.
Last 1 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ajman
Early Season
Hatta SC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ajman and Hatta SC in coming into this match?
Ajman have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while Hatta SC have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ajman have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Hatta SC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Ajman
2
Draws
0
Hatta SC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ajman and Hatta SC?
From 3 meetings on record, Ajman have won 1, Hatta SC have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ajman and Hatta SC last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Ajman 4-3 Hatta SC.
Who has won more matches between Ajman and Hatta SC?
Ajman have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 3 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ajman home games / Hatta SC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ajman play Hatta SC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 100% of Ajman's recent matches and 0% of Hatta SC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ajman vs Hatta SC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of Ajman's recent games and 0% of Hatta SC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ajman and Hatta SC tend to score early?
Ajman have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Hatta SC in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ajman edge out Hatta SC 4-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ajman beat Hatta SC 4-3 at Ajman Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajman 1.72 xG and Hatta SC 1.44 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Ajman beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Hatta SC outscored their 1.44 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajman attack 0.97 / defence 0.97 against Hatta SC attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 27/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Ajman 44% | Draw 23% | Hatta SC 32%, with Ajman to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajman 100%, Hatta SC 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Ajman arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Ajman scored 4 against a 3.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hatta SC scored 3 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.