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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Ajman and Baniyas SC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Ajman Stadium, Regular Season - 20, as Ajman and Baniyas SC drew 1-1 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajman 1.18 xG and Baniyas SC 1.22 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajman attack 0.89 / defence 0.96 against Baniyas SC attack 0.92 / defence 0.96, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ajman 35% | Draw 28% | Baniyas SC 37%, with Baniyas SC to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajman 51%, Baniyas SC 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ajman's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Baniyas SC's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Ajman 1.20 PPG, Baniyas SC 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights