🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Ajman edge out Al Wahda FC 4-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ajman beat Al Wahda FC 4-3 at Ajman Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajman 1.55 xG and Al Wahda FC 1.12 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Ajman beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al Wahda FC outscored their 1.12 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajman attack 1.13 / defence 0.92 against Al Wahda FC attack 0.88 / defence 0.79, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ajman 46% | Draw 27% | Al Wahda FC 27%, with Ajman to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajman 56%, Al Wahda FC 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ajman's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Al Wahda FC's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Al Wahda FC arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.23. Form was overturned, with Ajman winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ajman (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.47 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Wahda FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.53 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights