Ajman vs Al Nasr – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Ajman edge out Al Nasr 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ajman beat Al Nasr 2-1 at Ajman Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajman 2.54 xG and Al Nasr 1.47 xG, a combined 4.02. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajman attack 1.32 / defence 1.19 against Al Nasr attack 0.87 / defence 1.20, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ajman 61% | Draw 18% | Al Nasr 21%, with Ajman to win its most likely call at 61%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 57% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajman 58%, Al Nasr 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ajman's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Al Nasr's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Ajman 1.26 PPG, Al Nasr 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ajman win broke the near-deadlock. Ajman (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights