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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Ajman and Al-Jazira share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ajman and Al-Jazira finished level at 1-1 at Ajman Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajman 2.16 xG and Al-Jazira 1.96 xG, a combined 4.12. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Ajman fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Al-Jazira landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajman attack 1.30 / defence 1.16 against Al-Jazira attack 1.28 / defence 1.14, drawn from 46/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ajman 44% | Draw 20% | Al-Jazira 36%, with Ajman to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 78%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 59% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 76% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajman 56%, Al-Jazira 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ajman's trading profile (45 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Jazira's trading profile (45 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Ajman 1.29 PPG, Al-Jazira 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al-Jazira (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.95 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights