🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Al-Ittihad Kalba defy the odds to beat Ajman 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Ittihad Kalba beat Ajman 2-3 at Ajman Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajman 1.76 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.57 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Al-Ittihad Kalba outscored their 1.57 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajman attack 1.15 / defence 1.23 against Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.92 / defence 1.01, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ajman 43% | Draw 23% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 35%, with Ajman to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Al-Ittihad Kalba win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajman 57%, Al-Ittihad Kalba 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ajman's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Ajman 1.20 PPG, Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Ittihad Kalba win broke the near-deadlock. Ajman (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Ittihad Kalba (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.46 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights