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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Ajman and Al-Dhafra share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ajman and Al-Dhafra finished level at 1-1 at Ajman Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajman 1.68 xG and Al-Dhafra 1.31 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajman attack 0.84 / defence 1.01 against Al-Dhafra attack 0.97 / defence 1.54, drawn from 38/12 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ajman 46% | Draw 24% | Al-Dhafra 30%, with Ajman to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajman 33%, Al-Dhafra 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ajman's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 17% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Al-Dhafra's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Ajman 1.08 PPG, Al-Dhafra 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al-Dhafra (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.83 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights