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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Ajman edge out Al Bataeh 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ajman beat Al Bataeh 1-0 at Ajman Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajman 1.48 xG and Al Bataeh 1.45 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al Bataeh landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajman attack 1.03 / defence 1.17 against Al Bataeh attack 0.98 / defence 1.01, drawn from 28/28 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Ajman 38% | Draw 25% | Al Bataeh 37%, with Ajman to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajman 57%, Al Bataeh 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ajman's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Al Bataeh's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Ajman 1.11 PPG, Al Bataeh 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ajman win broke the near-deadlock. Ajman (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.07 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line. Al Bataeh (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights