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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Ajman cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Al Ain.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ajman beat Al Ain 4-2 at Ajman Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajman 1.78 xG and Al Ain 1.79 xG, a combined 3.58. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Ajman beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajman attack 0.92 / defence 0.89 against Al Ain attack 1.46 / defence 1.06, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ajman 37% | Draw 25% | Al Ain 38%, with Al Ain to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Ajman win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajman 57%, Al Ain 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ajman's trading profile (37 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Al Ain's trading profile (37 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Al Ain arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.14. Form was overturned, with Ajman winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ajman (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.41 average — above their attacking norm. Al Ain (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights