Under 2.5 Goals Predictions
Fixtures ranked by highest under 2.5 probability — Sunday 16 May 2027
Under 2.5 goals lands when a match produces 2 goals or fewer. Our prediction model sums the probability of every scoreline with 2 goals or fewer — 0–0, 1–0, 1–1, 2–0 and their mirror images. Only fixtures with 55%+ probability are shown.
14 matches clear our threshold on Sunday 16 May 2027. The strongest reading belongs to Malaga vs Celta Vigo at 67% in the La Liga. The shortlist runs from 67% down to 55%, so the depth of the card matters as much as the headline pick.
Süper Lig supplies four of the top 10, making it the dominant competition on this list.
Model output for information only — not betting advice. See the model's accuracy record.
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
La Liga · Spain
67%
Süper Lig · Turkey
65%
Süper Lig · Turkey
64%
Süper Lig · Turkey
62%
La Liga · Spain
62%
Serie A · Italy
60%
2. Bundesliga · Germany
60%
Primeira Liga · Portugal
59%
La Liga · Spain
59%
Süper Lig · Turkey
58%
Primeira Liga · Portugal
58%
Serie A · Italy
57%
Primeira Liga · Portugal
56%
La Liga · Spain
55%
Showing top 14 fixtures by under 2.5 probability (a 55% or higher under 2.5 probability). Predictions are generated by our prediction model and updated daily. For informational purposes only.
Related markets
Under 2.5 Goals — common questions
What does the Under 2.5 Goals market mean?
Under 2.5 Goals settles on whether a match finishes with 2 or fewer total goals. It is one of the most commonly offered football markets and is priced by every major bookmaker.
How does Fixture360 calculate under 2.5 goals probability?
Our Poisson model estimates each team's expected goals from their attack and defence strengths, then builds a probability for every possible scoreline. The under 2.5 probability shown here is the probability of 2 or fewer total goals, summed across every scoreline in the model's matrix. No bookmaker odds are used as an input — the model is independent of the market.
How many fixtures qualified for Under 2.5 Goals on Sunday 16 May 2027?
14 fixtures met the criteria, led by Malaga vs Celta Vigo at 67% under 2.5 probability.
Which fixtures appear on this page?
Fixtures with a 55% or higher under 2.5 probability, ranked strongest first. The page defaults to today; the date strip moves to other days, and only fixtures with enough underlying result history to generate a model snapshot are eligible.
How accurate are these under 2.5 goals predictions?
Every settled prediction is scored and published on our model accuracy page, broken down by market and league. Treat any single day as a small sample — the model is built to be judged over hundreds of fixtures, not one card.
Are these predictions betting tips?
No. These are model outputs published for information, with no stake or return implied. Gambling carries real financial risk — please read our responsible gambling guidance.