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Under 2.5 Goals Predictions

Fixtures ranked by highest under 2.5 probability — Saturday 27 April 2024

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Under 2.5 goals lands when a match produces 2 goals or fewer. Our prediction model sums the probability of every scoreline with 2 goals or fewer — 0–0, 1–0, 1–1, 2–0 and their mirror images. Only fixtures with 55%+ probability are shown.

20 matches cleared our threshold on Saturday 27 April 2024. The strongest reading belongs to Casa Pia vs Chaves at 82% in the Primeira Liga. The shortlist runs from 82% down to 62%, so the depth of the card matters as much as the headline pick.

League One supplies three of the top 10, making it the dominant competition on this list.

Of the 20 fixtures on this list that have since finished, eight landed the under 2.5 goals market — 40%. This is a single day's sample and swings heavily; the rolling record across all fixtures is on the model accuracy page.

Model output for information only — not betting advice. See the model's accuracy record.

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Portugal 82%

Under 2.5 82% BTTS No 74%

Premier League · Ukraine 74%

Under 2.5 74% BTTS No 66%

League One · England 74%

✓ Under 2.5 74% ✓ BTTS No 65%

Serie B · Italy 73%

✓ Under 2.5 73% ✓ BTTS No 62%

League One · England 72%

Under 2.5 72% BTTS No 64%

Ligue 2 · France 71%

✓ Under 2.5 71% ✓ BTTS No 65%

Championship · England 69%

✓ Under 2.5 69% ✓ BTTS No 62%

League One · England 69%

Under 2.5 69% BTTS No 62%

Pro League · Saudi-Arabia 68%

Under 2.5 68% BTTS No 60%

#10

Ligue 2 · France 67%

✓ Under 2.5 67% ✓ BTTS No 60%

#11

Serie A · Italy 67%

✓ Under 2.5 67% BTTS No 60%

#12

Primera División · Chile 67%

Under 2.5 67% BTTS No 59%

#13

K League 1 · South-Korea 65%

Under 2.5 65% BTTS No 56%

#14

Serie A · Brazil 65%

Under 2.5 65% ✓ BTTS No 58%

#15

Serie A · Italy 64%

✓ Under 2.5 64% ✓ BTTS No 58%

#16

League One · England 64%

Under 2.5 64% BTTS No 60%

#17

League One · England 64%

Under 2.5 64% BTTS No 57%

#18

League Two · England 63%

Under 2.5 63% BTTS No 57%

#19

Championship · England 63%

✓ Under 2.5 63% ✓ BTTS No 58%

#20

League Two · England 62%

Under 2.5 62% BTTS No 56%

Showing top 20 fixtures by under 2.5 probability (a 55% or higher under 2.5 probability). Predictions are generated by our prediction model and updated daily. For informational purposes only.

Related markets

Low Scoring Both Teams to Score – No Over 2.5 Goals

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Under 2.5 Goals — common questions

What does the Under 2.5 Goals market mean?

Under 2.5 Goals settles on whether a match finishes with 2 or fewer total goals. It is one of the most commonly offered football markets and is priced by every major bookmaker.

How does Fixture360 calculate under 2.5 goals probability?

Our Poisson model estimates each team's expected goals from their attack and defence strengths, then builds a probability for every possible scoreline. The under 2.5 probability shown here is the probability of 2 or fewer total goals, summed across every scoreline in the model's matrix. No bookmaker odds are used as an input — the model is independent of the market.

How many fixtures qualified for Under 2.5 Goals on Saturday 27 April 2024?

20 fixtures met the criteria, led by Casa Pia vs Chaves at 82% under 2.5 probability.

Which fixtures appear on this page?

Fixtures with a 55% or higher under 2.5 probability, ranked strongest first. The page defaults to today; the date strip moves to other days, and only fixtures with enough underlying result history to generate a model snapshot are eligible.

How accurate are these under 2.5 goals predictions?

Every settled prediction is scored and published on our model accuracy page, broken down by market and league. Treat any single day as a small sample — the model is built to be judged over hundreds of fixtures, not one card.

Are these predictions betting tips?

No. These are model outputs published for information, with no stake or return implied. Gambling carries real financial risk — please read our responsible gambling guidance.