Under 2.5 Goals Predictions
Fixtures ranked by highest under 2.5 probability — Sunday 23 April 2023
Under 2.5 goals lands when a match produces 2 goals or fewer. Our prediction model sums the probability of every scoreline with 2 goals or fewer — 0–0, 1–0, 1–1, 2–0 and their mirror images. Only fixtures with 55%+ probability are shown.
The model shortlists 20 fixtures on Sunday 23 April 2023. Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid led the list at 76% in the La Liga. The shortlist runs from 76% down to 64%, which is a meaningful spread across a single day.
Primeira Liga supplies three of the top 10, which is worth noting if you are spreading selections across leagues.
Of the 20 fixtures on this list that have since finished, nine landed the under 2.5 goals market — 45%. This is a single day's sample and swings heavily; the rolling record across all fixtures is on the model accuracy page.
Model output for information only — not betting advice. See the model's accuracy record.
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
La Liga · Spain
76%
Championship · England
73%
La Liga · Spain
72%
Serie B · Italy
70%
Ligue 1 · France
70%
Super League 1 · Greece
69%
Bundesliga · Germany
68%
Primeira Liga · Portugal
67%
Primeira Liga · Portugal
67%
Primeira Liga · Portugal
66%
Allsvenskan · Sweden
66%
Serie B · Italy
66%
Primera División · Chile
65%
Ligue 1 · France
65%
Veikkausliiga · Finland
65%
2. Bundesliga · Germany
65%
Serie A · Italy
65%
Premier League · England
64%
Ekstraklasa · Poland
64%
Premier League · Ukraine
64%
Showing top 20 fixtures by under 2.5 probability (a 55% or higher under 2.5 probability). Predictions are generated by our prediction model and updated daily. For informational purposes only.
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Predictions by country
UK Football Predictions
Spanish Football Predictions
Italian Football Predictions
German Football Predictions
French Football Predictions
Dutch Football Predictions
Portuguese Football PredictionsUnder 2.5 Goals — common questions
What does the Under 2.5 Goals market mean?
Under 2.5 Goals settles on whether a match finishes with 2 or fewer total goals. It is one of the most commonly offered football markets and is priced by every major bookmaker.
How does Fixture360 calculate under 2.5 goals probability?
Our Poisson model estimates each team's expected goals from their attack and defence strengths, then builds a probability for every possible scoreline. The under 2.5 probability shown here is the probability of 2 or fewer total goals, summed across every scoreline in the model's matrix. No bookmaker odds are used as an input — the model is independent of the market.
How many fixtures qualified for Under 2.5 Goals on Sunday 23 April 2023?
20 fixtures met the criteria, led by Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid at 76% under 2.5 probability.
Which fixtures appear on this page?
Fixtures with a 55% or higher under 2.5 probability, ranked strongest first. The page defaults to today; the date strip moves to other days, and only fixtures with enough underlying result history to generate a model snapshot are eligible.
How accurate are these under 2.5 goals predictions?
Every settled prediction is scored and published on our model accuracy page, broken down by market and league. Treat any single day as a small sample — the model is built to be judged over hundreds of fixtures, not one card.
Are these predictions betting tips?
No. These are model outputs published for information, with no stake or return implied. Gambling carries real financial risk — please read our responsible gambling guidance.