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Under 2.5 Goals Predictions

Fixtures ranked by highest under 2.5 probability — Monday 26 July 2021

Fri 23 Sat 24 Sun 25 Mon 26 Tue 27 Wed 28 Thu 29

Under 2.5 goals lands when a match produces 2 goals or fewer. Our prediction model sums the probability of every scoreline with 2 goals or fewer — 0–0, 1–0, 1–1, 2–0 and their mirror images. Only fixtures with 55%+ probability are shown.

Ten fixtures cleared the bar on Monday 26 July 2021. Sport Recife vs Ceara sits top on 82% in the Serie A. The shortlist runs from 82% down to 59%, so the tail is materially weaker than the top.

The shortlist spans seven different competitions, a broad spread rather than one division dominating.

Of the ten fixtures on this list that have since finished, five landed the under 2.5 goals market — 50%. This is a single day's sample and swings heavily; the rolling record across all fixtures is on the model accuracy page.

Model output for information only — not betting advice. See the model's accuracy record.

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Serie A · Brazil 82%

✓ Under 2.5 82% ✓ BTTS No 73%

Premier League · Ukraine 79%

Under 2.5 79% BTTS No 67%

Ekstraklasa · Poland 72%

Under 2.5 72% ✓ BTTS No 60%

Superettan · Sweden 70%

Under 2.5 70% BTTS No 63%

Primera División · Chile 69%

Under 2.5 69% ✓ BTTS No 61%

Ligue 2 · France 67%

Under 2.5 67% BTTS No 57%

Allsvenskan · Sweden 62%

✓ Under 2.5 62% BTTS No 54%

Superettan · Sweden 62%

✓ Under 2.5 62% BTTS No 55%

Premier League · Russia 61%

✓ Under 2.5 61% ✓ BTTS No 61%

#10

Serie A · Brazil 59%

Showing top 10 fixtures by under 2.5 probability (a 55% or higher under 2.5 probability). Predictions are generated by our prediction model and updated daily. For informational purposes only.

Related markets

Low Scoring Both Teams to Score – No Over 2.5 Goals

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Under 2.5 Goals — common questions

What does the Under 2.5 Goals market mean?

Under 2.5 Goals settles on whether a match finishes with 2 or fewer total goals. It is one of the most commonly offered football markets and is priced by every major bookmaker.

How does Fixture360 calculate under 2.5 goals probability?

Our Poisson model estimates each team's expected goals from their attack and defence strengths, then builds a probability for every possible scoreline. The under 2.5 probability shown here is the probability of 2 or fewer total goals, summed across every scoreline in the model's matrix. No bookmaker odds are used as an input — the model is independent of the market.

How many fixtures qualified for Under 2.5 Goals on Monday 26 July 2021?

ten fixtures met the criteria, led by Sport Recife vs Ceara at 82% under 2.5 probability.

Which fixtures appear on this page?

Fixtures with a 55% or higher under 2.5 probability, ranked strongest first. The page defaults to today; the date strip moves to other days, and only fixtures with enough underlying result history to generate a model snapshot are eligible.

How accurate are these under 2.5 goals predictions?

Every settled prediction is scored and published on our model accuracy page, broken down by market and league. Treat any single day as a small sample — the model is built to be judged over hundreds of fixtures, not one card.

Are these predictions betting tips?

No. These are model outputs published for information, with no stake or return implied. Gambling carries real financial risk — please read our responsible gambling guidance.