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Shock result as Zorya Luhansk defy the odds to beat Ruh Lviv 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Zorya Luhansk beat Ruh Lviv 1-0 at Stadion Valerija Lobanovskoho, Regular Season - 11, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Zorya Luhansk 0.86 xG and Ruh Lviv 0.98 xG, a combined 1.84. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ruh Lviv landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zorya Luhansk attack 0.88 / defence 0.99 against Ruh Lviv attack 0.76 / defence 0.86, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Zorya Luhansk 30% | Draw 34% | Ruh Lviv 36%, with Ruh Lviv to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Zorya Luhansk win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 56% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zorya Luhansk 55%, Ruh Lviv 30%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Zorya Luhansk's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

Ruh Lviv's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Zorya Luhansk 1.32 PPG, Ruh Lviv 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zorya Luhansk win broke the near-deadlock. Zorya Luhansk (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Ruh Lviv (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.84 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights