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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Zorya Luhansk cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Ruh Lviv.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Zorya Luhansk beat Ruh Lviv 2-0 at Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi, Regular Season - 19, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Zorya Luhansk 1.01 xG and Ruh Lviv 1.02 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Zorya Luhansk beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ruh Lviv landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zorya Luhansk attack 1.00 / defence 1.10 against Ruh Lviv attack 1.00 / defence 0.86, drawn from 47/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Zorya Luhansk 35% | Draw 31% | Ruh Lviv 35%, with Zorya Luhansk to win its most likely call at 35%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zorya Luhansk 49%, Ruh Lviv 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Zorya Luhansk's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.

Ruh Lviv's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Zorya Luhansk 1.15 PPG, Ruh Lviv 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zorya Luhansk win broke the near-deadlock. Zorya Luhansk (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.87 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. Ruh Lviv (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights