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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Zorya Luhansk and Oleksandria share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadion Valerija Lobanovskoho, Regular Season - 13, as Zorya Luhansk and Oleksandria drew 2-2 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Zorya Luhansk 1.10 xG and Oleksandria 1.08 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Zorya Luhansk beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Oleksandria outscored their 1.08 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zorya Luhansk attack 0.90 / defence 0.90 against Oleksandria attack 0.87 / defence 1.06, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Zorya Luhansk 36% | Draw 29% | Oleksandria 35%, with Zorya Luhansk to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zorya Luhansk 55%, Oleksandria 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Zorya Luhansk's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Oleksandria's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Oleksandria arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.40. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Zorya Luhansk (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Oleksandria (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights