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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Zorya Luhansk edge out Livyi Bereh 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Zorya Luhansk beat Livyi Bereh 2-1 at Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi, Regular Season - 26, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Zorya Luhansk 1.12 xG and Livyi Bereh 0.82 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Zorya Luhansk beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zorya Luhansk attack 0.98 / defence 1.24 against Livyi Bereh attack 0.66 / defence 0.97, drawn from 54/24 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Zorya Luhansk 43% | Draw 31% | Livyi Bereh 27%, with Zorya Luhansk to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zorya Luhansk 57%, Livyi Bereh 21%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Zorya Luhansk's trading profile (28 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Livyi Bereh's trading profile (28 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 21% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Zorya Luhansk 1.29 PPG, Livyi Bereh 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zorya Luhansk win broke the near-deadlock. Livyi Bereh (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights