🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Zorya Luhansk edge out Kudrivka 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Zorya Luhansk beat Kudrivka 2-1 at Stadion Valerija Lobanovskoho, Regular Season - 2, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Zorya Luhansk 1.08 xG and Kudrivka 0.76 xG, a combined 1.85. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Zorya Luhansk beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zorya Luhansk attack 0.87 / defence 0.93 against Kudrivka attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 31/1 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Zorya Luhansk 43% | Draw 32% | Kudrivka 26%, with Zorya Luhansk to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zorya Luhansk 33%, Kudrivka 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Zorya Luhansk's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Kudrivka's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Kudrivka arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.33. Form was overturned, with Zorya Luhansk winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Zorya Luhansk scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Kudrivka shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights