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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Kolos Kovalivka cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Zorya Luhansk.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kolos Kovalivka beat Zorya Luhansk 1-3 at Stadion Valerija Lobanovskoho, Regular Season - 5, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Zorya Luhansk 1.00 xG and Kolos Kovalivka 1.36 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Kolos Kovalivka outscored their 1.36 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zorya Luhansk attack 0.97 / defence 1.08 against Kolos Kovalivka attack 1.04 / defence 0.84, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Zorya Luhansk 28% | Draw 27% | Kolos Kovalivka 45%, with Kolos Kovalivka to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zorya Luhansk 59%, Kolos Kovalivka 24%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Zorya Luhansk's trading profile (34 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Kolos Kovalivka's trading profile (34 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Zorya Luhansk 1.38 PPG, Kolos Kovalivka 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kolos Kovalivka win broke the near-deadlock. Zorya Luhansk (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Kolos Kovalivka (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights