🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Vorskla Poltava run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Veres Rivne.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Vorskla Poltava beat Veres Rivne 3-0 at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho, Regular Season - 26, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Vorskla Poltava 0.87 xG and Veres Rivne 1.19 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Vorskla Poltava beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Veres Rivne landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vorskla Poltava attack 0.68 / defence 1.30 against Veres Rivne attack 0.89 / defence 1.08, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Vorskla Poltava 27% | Draw 30% | Veres Rivne 43%, with Veres Rivne to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Vorskla Poltava win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vorskla Poltava 44%, Veres Rivne 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (55 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.

Veres Rivne's trading profile (55 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Vorskla Poltava 0.98 PPG, Veres Rivne 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vorskla Poltava win broke the near-deadlock. Vorskla Poltava (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line. Veres Rivne (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights