Vorskla Poltava 0-5 Shakhtar Donetsk – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Shakhtar Donetsk at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vorskla Poltava vs Shakhtar Donetsk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Vorskla Poltava host Shakhtar Donetsk at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho in Premier League, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 4 August 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Vorskla Poltava — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Vorskla Poltava haven't played a Premier League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho, Vorskla Poltava have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 0.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Vorskla Poltava are significantly better at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho than their overall form suggests.
Across all Premier League games this season, Shakhtar Donetsk have recorded 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Shakhtar Donetsk haven't played a Premier League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Shakhtar Donetsk's away record: 7W 2D 1L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Shakhtar Donetsk — 2.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.50 vs 0.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Vorskla Poltava have won 2, Shakhtar Donetsk 3, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 2.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 14 Apr 2024, ended 0–1 with Shakhtar Donetsk winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Vorskla Poltava in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Shakhtar Donetsk in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vorskla Poltava 53% versus Shakhtar Donetsk 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vorskla Poltava 50% | Shakhtar Donetsk 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vorskla Poltava 1.12 xG and Shakhtar Donetsk 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vorskla Poltava attack 1.026 / defence 1.195 | Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.234 / defence 0.896. League average goals — home 1.223 / away 1.102. Shakhtar Donetsk have an above-average attack strength of 1.234 — the away xG of 1.62 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 30 Vorskla Poltava games / 30 Shakhtar Donetsk games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 26% | Draw 25% | Shakhtar Donetsk 49%. Fair-value odds: Vorskla Poltava 3.85 | Draw 4.00 | Shakhtar Donetsk 2.04. Shakhtar Donetsk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shakhtar Donetsk at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shakhtar Donetsk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Vorskla Poltava 70% | Shakhtar Donetsk 40% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vorskla Poltava vs Shakhtar Donetsk | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Aug 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 26% | Draw 25% | Shakhtar Donetsk 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 54% | xG Vorskla Poltava 1.12 / Shakhtar Donetsk 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Vorskla Poltava attack 1.026 / def 1.195 | Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.234 / def 0.896 | league avg home 1.223 / away 1.102 • Poisson stance: Shakhtar Donetsk (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Vorskla Poltava xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vorskla Poltava vs Shakhtar Donetsk kick off?
Vorskla Poltava vs Shakhtar Donetsk kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 4 August 2024 at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho.
What was the final score in Vorskla Poltava vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Vorskla Poltava 0 - 5 Shakhtar Donetsk.
Where is Vorskla Poltava vs Shakhtar Donetsk being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho.
What competition is Vorskla Poltava vs Shakhtar Donetsk part of?
Vorskla Poltava vs Shakhtar Donetsk is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Vorskla Poltava vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our statistical model gives Vorskla Poltava a 26% chance of winning, Shakhtar Donetsk a 49% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Shakhtar Donetsk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vorskla Poltava vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Vorskla Poltava and Shakhtar Donetsk will score (BTTS).
Will Vorskla Poltava vs Shakhtar Donetsk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vorskla Poltava and Shakhtar Donetsk?
Record (5 meetings): Vorskla Poltava 2W | Draws 0 | Shakhtar Donetsk 3W.
What form are Vorskla Poltava and Shakhtar Donetsk in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Vorskla Poltava (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Vorskla Poltava's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Shakhtar Donetsk's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. The same calculation in reverse, Shakhtar Donetsk's attack versus Vorskla Poltava's defence, projects 1.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shakhtar Donetsk Win
26%
3.79
25%
4.06
49%
2.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Vorskla Poltava xG
Total xG
2.75
1.62
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
3.79
26%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
2.04
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
20%
5.08
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
5%
19.27
16%
6.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 10.4 | 8.4 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.7 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.6 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vorskla Poltava vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Vorskla Poltava and Shakhtar Donetsk expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Vorskla Poltava and 1.62 for Shakhtar Donetsk, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Vorskla Poltava vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Vorskla Poltava's recent record stands at 9W 6D 15L from 30 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five. Vorskla Poltava haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Shakhtar Donetsk, meanwhile, have gone 22W 5D 3L across 30 games — 2.37 PPG, with W-W-W-D-L in their last five. Shakhtar Donetsk haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shakhtar Donetsk by 1.27 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Vorskla Poltava heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Vorskla Poltava have managed 4W 3D 8L from 15 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shakhtar Donetsk's away record stands at 10W 4D 1L across 15 trips, a 2.27 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shakhtar Donetsk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Vorskla Poltava are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Shakhtar Donetsk are on 2.10 scored and 0.80 conceded.
Defensively: Shakhtar Donetsk in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vorskla Poltava
Pre-Season
Shakhtar Donetsk
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vorskla Poltava and Shakhtar Donetsk in coming into this match?
Vorskla Poltava have gone 9W 6D 15L in their last 30 games (1.10 PPG), while Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 22W 5D 3L in their last 30 (2.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vorskla Poltava at home or Shakhtar Donetsk away?
Shakhtar Donetsk's away record (2.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vorskla Poltava at home: 1.00 PPG; Shakhtar Donetsk away: 2.27 PPG.
Have Vorskla Poltava or Shakhtar Donetsk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vorskla Poltava have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Shakhtar Donetsk in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Vorskla Poltava and Shakhtar Donetsk runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 December 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Shakhtar Donetsk go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Aug 2024, when Shakhtar Donetsk won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Vorskla Poltava's record when hosting Shakhtar Donetsk specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Vorskla Poltava
0
Draws
5
Shakhtar Donetsk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vorskla Poltava and Shakhtar Donetsk?
From 7 meetings on record, Vorskla Poltava have won 2, Shakhtar Donetsk have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Vorskla Poltava and Shakhtar Donetsk last play each other?
They last met on 5 December 2024, when Shakhtar Donetsk 3-1 Vorskla Poltava.
Who has won more matches between Vorskla Poltava and Shakhtar Donetsk?
Shakhtar Donetsk have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Vorskla Poltava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Shakhtar Donetsk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 73% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vorskla Poltava 67%, Shakhtar Donetsk 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Vorskla Poltava and 53% for Shakhtar Donetsk. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shakhtar Donetsk in 40%; Vorskla Poltava have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vorskla Poltava home games / Shakhtar Donetsk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vorskla Poltava play Shakhtar Donetsk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Vorskla Poltava's games and 53% of Shakhtar Donetsk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vorskla Poltava vs Shakhtar Donetsk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Vorskla Poltava's matches and 53% of Shakhtar Donetsk's.
Do Vorskla Poltava and Shakhtar Donetsk tend to score early?
Vorskla Poltava have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Shakhtar Donetsk in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Shakhtar Donetsk run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Vorskla Poltava.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shakhtar Donetsk beat Vorskla Poltava 0-5 at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho, Regular Season - 1, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vorskla Poltava 1.12 xG and Shakhtar Donetsk 1.62 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Vorskla Poltava fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Shakhtar Donetsk outscored their 1.62 projection by 3.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vorskla Poltava attack 1.03 / defence 1.20 against Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.23 / defence 0.90, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vorskla Poltava 26% | Draw 25% | Shakhtar Donetsk 49%, with Shakhtar Donetsk to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vorskla Poltava 50%, Shakhtar Donetsk 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Shakhtar Donetsk's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Shakhtar Donetsk arrived the stronger side — 2.37 PPG against 1.10. Form held, and they took the win. Vorskla Poltava (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shakhtar Donetsk (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.13 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.