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Polessya cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Vorskla Poltava.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Polessya beat Vorskla Poltava 0-2 at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho, Regular Season - 24, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Vorskla Poltava 0.92 xG and Polessya 1.01 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Vorskla Poltava fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Polessya outscored their 1.01 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vorskla Poltava attack 0.73 / defence 1.10 against Polessya attack 0.99 / defence 1.09, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Vorskla Poltava 32% | Draw 31% | Polessya 37%, with Polessya to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vorskla Poltava 43%, Polessya 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Polessya's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Polessya arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 1.02. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Vorskla Poltava (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward. Polessya (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights