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Oleksandria cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Vorskla Poltava.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Oleksandria beat Vorskla Poltava 1-3 at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho, Regular Season - 25, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Vorskla Poltava 0.72 xG and Oleksandria 1.03 xG, a combined 1.75. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Oleksandria outscored their 1.03 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vorskla Poltava attack 0.67 / defence 1.15 against Oleksandria attack 0.91 / defence 0.96, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Vorskla Poltava 25% | Draw 33% | Oleksandria 42%, with Oleksandria to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 52% and landed. Over 3.5 was 10% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vorskla Poltava 43%, Oleksandria 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (54 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Oleksandria's trading profile (54 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Oleksandria arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Vorskla Poltava (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Oleksandria (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights