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Shock result as Livyi Bereh defy the odds to beat Vorskla Poltava 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Livyi Bereh beat Vorskla Poltava 0-1 at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho, Regular Season - 17, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Vorskla Poltava 1.01 xG and Livyi Bereh 0.80 xG, a combined 1.82. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Vorskla Poltava fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vorskla Poltava attack 0.75 / defence 1.24 against Livyi Bereh attack 0.64 / defence 1.05, drawn from 46/16 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Vorskla Poltava 37% | Draw 37% | Livyi Bereh 26%, with Vorskla Poltava to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Livyi Bereh win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 56% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vorskla Poltava 50%, Livyi Bereh 30%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 35%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (20 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Livyi Bereh's trading profile (20 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Vorskla Poltava 0.95 PPG, Livyi Bereh 0.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Livyi Bereh win broke the near-deadlock. Vorskla Poltava (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward. Livyi Bereh (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights