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Shock result as Kudrivka defy the odds to beat Vorskla Poltava 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kudrivka beat Vorskla Poltava 0-1 at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho, Relegation Round, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Vorskla Poltava 1.11 xG and Kudrivka 1.07 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Vorskla Poltava fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vorskla Poltava attack 0.84 / defence 1.25 against Kudrivka attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 60/0 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Vorskla Poltava 34% | Draw 33% | Kudrivka 32%, with Vorskla Poltava to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual Kudrivka win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vorskla Poltava 100%, Kudrivka 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Form vs Result

On form, Vorskla Poltava arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with Kudrivka winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Vorskla Poltava managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Kudrivka conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights