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Prediction vindicated as Kryvbas KR edge out Vorskla Poltava 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kryvbas KR beat Vorskla Poltava 0-1 at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho, Regular Season - 22, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Vorskla Poltava 0.89 xG and Kryvbas KR 0.96 xG, a combined 1.85. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Vorskla Poltava fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vorskla Poltava attack 0.76 / defence 1.03 against Kryvbas KR attack 1.05 / defence 0.98, drawn from 51/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Vorskla Poltava 32% | Draw 32% | Kryvbas KR 36%, with Kryvbas KR to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 55% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vorskla Poltava 41%, Kryvbas KR 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (49 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Kryvbas KR's trading profile (49 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Kryvbas KR arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.10. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Vorskla Poltava (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward. Kryvbas KR (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights