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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Chornomorets defy the odds to beat Vorskla Poltava 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Chornomorets beat Vorskla Poltava 1-2 at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho, Regular Season - 28, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Vorskla Poltava 1.39 xG and Chornomorets 0.98 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Chornomorets outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vorskla Poltava attack 0.85 / defence 1.18 against Chornomorets attack 0.80 / defence 1.40, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Vorskla Poltava 45% | Draw 29% | Chornomorets 25%, with Vorskla Poltava to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Chornomorets win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vorskla Poltava 44%, Chornomorets 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (57 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Chornomorets's trading profile (57 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Vorskla Poltava 1.02 PPG, Chornomorets 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chornomorets win broke the near-deadlock. Chornomorets (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights