🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Veres Rivne run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Polessya.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Veres Rivne beat Polessya 5-1 at Stadion Avanhard, Regular Season - 21, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Veres Rivne 1.20 xG and Polessya 1.03 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Veres Rivne beat their projection by 3.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Veres Rivne attack 1.13 / defence 1.14 against Polessya attack 1.01 / defence 0.86, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Veres Rivne 40% | Draw 29% | Polessya 31%, with Veres Rivne to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Veres Rivne 48%, Polessya 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Veres Rivne's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Polessya's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Polessya arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.12. Form was overturned, with Veres Rivne winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Veres Rivne (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm. Polessya (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights