Veres Rivne 1-3 Livyi Bereh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Veres Rivne at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Veres Rivne vs Livyi Bereh encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 5 as Veres Rivne welcome Livyi Bereh to Stadion Avanhard. Kick-off is set for Sunday 1 September 2024 at 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Veres Rivne have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W D L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Veres Rivne have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Veres Rivne's home record at Stadion Avanhard: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Livyi Bereh stand at 2W 2D 4L from 8 Premier League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.75 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Livyi Bereh have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On current form, Veres Rivne have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Profile
Veres Rivne in-play tendencies (8 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
Livyi Bereh in-play tendencies (8 games): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Veres Rivne 62% versus Livyi Bereh 25%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Veres Rivne 50% | Livyi Bereh 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Veres Rivne 1.10 xG and Livyi Bereh 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Veres Rivne attack 0.805 / defence 1.047 | Livyi Bereh attack 0.723 / defence 1.081. League average goals — home 1.268 / away 1.239. Data: 34 Veres Rivne games / 4 Livyi Bereh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Veres Rivne 39% | Draw 30% | Livyi Bereh 30%. Fair-value odds: Veres Rivne 2.56 | Draw 3.33 | Livyi Bereh 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Veres Rivne as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Veres Rivne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.04 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Veres Rivne 60% | Livyi Bereh 25% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Veres Rivne vs Livyi Bereh | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadion Avanhard • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Sep 2024, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Veres Rivne 39% | Draw 30% | Livyi Bereh 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG Veres Rivne 1.10 / Livyi Bereh 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Veres Rivne attack 0.805 / def 1.047 | Livyi Bereh attack 0.723 / def 1.081 | league avg home 1.268 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: Veres Rivne (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Veres Rivne xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Livyi Bereh xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Veres Rivne vs Livyi Bereh kick off?
Veres Rivne vs Livyi Bereh kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 1 September 2024 at Stadion Avanhard.
What was the final score in Veres Rivne vs Livyi Bereh?
Veres Rivne 1 - 3 Livyi Bereh.
Where is Veres Rivne vs Livyi Bereh being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Avanhard.
What competition is Veres Rivne vs Livyi Bereh part of?
Veres Rivne vs Livyi Bereh is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Veres Rivne vs Livyi Bereh?
Our statistical model gives Veres Rivne a 39% chance of winning, Livyi Bereh a 30% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Veres Rivne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Veres Rivne vs Livyi Bereh?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Veres Rivne and Livyi Bereh will score (BTTS).
Will Veres Rivne vs Livyi Bereh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Veres Rivne and Livyi Bereh?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Veres Rivne and Livyi Bereh in?
Veres Rivne (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-L-W. Livyi Bereh (all comps): 2W-2D-4L in 8 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.75 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Veres Rivne's attack rating (0.81) and Livyi Bereh's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Livyi Bereh's attack versus Veres Rivne's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 1-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Veres Rivne Win
39%
2.55
30%
3.30
30%
3.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Veres Rivne xG
Total xG
2.04
0.94
Livyi Bereh xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
3.28
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
33%
3.02
Win to Nil
15%
6.52
10%
9.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 12.2 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 13.4 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 7.4 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Veres Rivne vs Livyi Bereh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Veres Rivne and Livyi Bereh expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Veres Rivne and 0.94 for Livyi Bereh, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Veres Rivne vs Livyi Bereh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Veres Rivne's recent record stands at 3W 3D 2L from 8 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Veres Rivne, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Livyi Bereh, meanwhile, have gone 2W 2D 4L across 8 games — 1.00 PPG, with W-L-L-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Livyi Bereh, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Veres Rivne by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Livyi Bereh heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
Veres Rivne are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Livyi Bereh are on 0.75 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Veres Rivne have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Livyi Bereh in 25%.
Last 8 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Veres Rivne
Early Season
Livyi Bereh
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Veres Rivne and Livyi Bereh in coming into this match?
Veres Rivne have gone 3W 3D 2L in their last 8 games (1.50 PPG), while Livyi Bereh have gone 2W 2D 4L in their last 8 (1.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Veres Rivne and Livyi Bereh runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Veres Rivne
0
Draws
2
Livyi Bereh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Veres Rivne and Livyi Bereh?
From 2 meetings on record, Veres Rivne have won 0, Livyi Bereh have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Veres Rivne and Livyi Bereh last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2025, when Livyi Bereh 2-0 Veres Rivne.
Who has won more matches between Veres Rivne and Livyi Bereh?
Livyi Bereh have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Veres Rivne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Livyi Bereh see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Veres Rivne 62%, Livyi Bereh 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Veres Rivne) and 25% (Livyi Bereh).
On the defensive side: Livyi Bereh in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Veres Rivne home games / Livyi Bereh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Veres Rivne play Livyi Bereh?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Veres Rivne's recent matches and 25% of Livyi Bereh's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Veres Rivne vs Livyi Bereh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Veres Rivne's recent games and 25% of Livyi Bereh's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Veres Rivne and Livyi Bereh tend to score early?
Veres Rivne have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Livyi Bereh in 38% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Livyi Bereh cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Veres Rivne.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Livyi Bereh beat Veres Rivne 1-3 at Stadion Avanhard, Regular Season - 5, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Veres Rivne 1.10 xG and Livyi Bereh 0.94 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Livyi Bereh outscored their 0.94 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Veres Rivne attack 0.81 / defence 1.05 against Livyi Bereh attack 0.72 / defence 1.08, drawn from 34/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Veres Rivne 39% | Draw 30% | Livyi Bereh 30%, with Veres Rivne to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Livyi Bereh win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Veres Rivne 50%, Livyi Bereh 25%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Veres Rivne's trading profile (8 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Livyi Bereh's trading profile (8 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Veres Rivne arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Livyi Bereh winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Veres Rivne shipped 3 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Livyi Bereh scored 3 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.