Veres Rivne 0-1 Kolos Kovalivka – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Kolos Kovalivka at 36% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Veres Rivne vs Kolos Kovalivka encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Kolos Kovalivka make the trip to Avanhard to face Veres Rivne in Premier League, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Sunday 22 March 2026 at 13:30 UTC.
Form
Veres Rivne (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Veres Rivne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Veres Rivne have posted 3W 3D 4L at Avanhard — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Kolos Kovalivka's overall Premier League record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Kolos Kovalivka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kolos Kovalivka away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Veres Rivne, 1.40 for Kolos Kovalivka — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Kolos Kovalivka hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 5 wins from 9 meetings. The hosts have won just 2 times in that span.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.3 per game from 9 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Kolos Kovalivka have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
Veres Rivne — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Kolos Kovalivka — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Veres Rivne 45% versus Kolos Kovalivka 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Veres Rivne 45% | Kolos Kovalivka 24%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Veres Rivne 1.17 xG and Kolos Kovalivka 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Veres Rivne attack 0.912 / defence 1.162 | Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.850 / defence 1.102. League average goals — home 1.164 / away 1.204. Data: 49 Veres Rivne games / 50 Kolos Kovalivka games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Veres Rivne 35% | Draw 28% | Kolos Kovalivka 36%. Fair-value odds: Veres Rivne 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | Kolos Kovalivka 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kolos Kovalivka are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kolos Kovalivka if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.36 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Veres Rivne 30% | Kolos Kovalivka 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Veres Rivne vs Kolos Kovalivka | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Avanhard • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Mar 2026, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Veres Rivne 35% | Draw 28% | Kolos Kovalivka 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Veres Rivne 1.17 / Kolos Kovalivka 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Veres Rivne attack 0.912 / def 1.162 | Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.850 / def 1.102 | league avg home 1.164 / away 1.204 • Poisson stance: Kolos Kovalivka (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Veres Rivne xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Kolos Kovalivka xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Veres Rivne vs Kolos Kovalivka kick off?
Veres Rivne vs Kolos Kovalivka kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 22 March 2026 at Avanhard.
What was the final score in Veres Rivne vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Veres Rivne 0 - 1 Kolos Kovalivka.
Where is Veres Rivne vs Kolos Kovalivka being played?
The match is being played at Avanhard.
What competition is Veres Rivne vs Kolos Kovalivka part of?
Veres Rivne vs Kolos Kovalivka is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Veres Rivne vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Our statistical model gives Veres Rivne a 35% chance of winning, Kolos Kovalivka a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Kolos Kovalivka the favourite.
Will both teams score in Veres Rivne vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Veres Rivne and Kolos Kovalivka will score (BTTS).
Will Veres Rivne vs Kolos Kovalivka have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Veres Rivne and Kolos Kovalivka?
Record (9 meetings): Veres Rivne 2W | Draws 2 | Kolos Kovalivka 5W.
What form are Veres Rivne and Kolos Kovalivka in?
Veres Rivne (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Kolos Kovalivka (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Veres Rivne's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Kolos Kovalivka's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. Flip it around — Kolos Kovalivka's attack (0.85x) against Veres Rivne's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 49/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 0-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kolos Kovalivka Win
35%
2.83
28%
3.53
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Veres Rivne xG
Total xG
2.36
1.19
Kolos Kovalivka xG
2.83
35%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
30%
3.28
31%
3.22
Win to Nil
11%
9.27
11%
8.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 11.2 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.2 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.7 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Veres Rivne vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Veres Rivne and Kolos Kovalivka expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Veres Rivne and 1.19 for Kolos Kovalivka, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Veres Rivne vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Veres Rivne's recent record stands at 14W 16D 19L from 49 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Veres Rivne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kolos Kovalivka, meanwhile, have gone 15W 19D 15L across 49 games — 1.31 PPG, with D-L-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Kolos Kovalivka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.18 PPG for Veres Rivne against 1.31 for Kolos Kovalivka. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Veres Rivne have managed 8W 8D 8L from 24 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kolos Kovalivka's away record stands at 10W 6D 8L across 24 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Veres Rivne are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Kolos Kovalivka are on 0.90 scored and 0.88 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Veres Rivne
Blended
Kolos Kovalivka
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Veres Rivne and Kolos Kovalivka in coming into this match?
Veres Rivne have gone 14W 16D 19L in their last 49 games (1.18 PPG), while Kolos Kovalivka have gone 15W 19D 15L in their last 49 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Veres Rivne at home or Kolos Kovalivka away?
Kolos Kovalivka's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Veres Rivne at home: 1.33 PPG; Kolos Kovalivka away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Veres Rivne or Kolos Kovalivka been keeping clean sheets recently?
Veres Rivne have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Kolos Kovalivka in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Veres Rivne have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Kolos Kovalivka — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Veres Rivne
2
Draws
6
Kolos Kovalivka
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Veres Rivne and Kolos Kovalivka?
From 10 meetings on record, Veres Rivne have won 2, Kolos Kovalivka have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Veres Rivne and Kolos Kovalivka last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Veres Rivne 0-1 Kolos Kovalivka.
Who has won more matches between Veres Rivne and Kolos Kovalivka?
Kolos Kovalivka have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Veres Rivne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Kolos Kovalivka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Veres Rivne 58%, Kolos Kovalivka 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Veres Rivne) and 33% (Kolos Kovalivka).
On the defensive side: Kolos Kovalivka in 38%; Veres Rivne have failed to score in 29% of games; Kolos Kovalivka in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Veres Rivne home games / Kolos Kovalivka away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Veres Rivne play Kolos Kovalivka?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Veres Rivne's recent matches and 38% of Kolos Kovalivka's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Veres Rivne vs Kolos Kovalivka usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Veres Rivne's recent games and 33% of Kolos Kovalivka's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Veres Rivne and Kolos Kovalivka tend to score early?
Veres Rivne have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Kolos Kovalivka in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Kolos Kovalivka edge out Veres Rivne 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kolos Kovalivka beat Veres Rivne 0-1 at Avanhard, Regular Season - 21, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Veres Rivne 1.17 xG and Kolos Kovalivka 1.19 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Veres Rivne fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Veres Rivne attack 0.91 / defence 1.16 against Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.85 / defence 1.10, drawn from 49/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Veres Rivne 35% | Draw 28% | Kolos Kovalivka 36%, with Kolos Kovalivka to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Veres Rivne 45%, Kolos Kovalivka 24%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Veres Rivne's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Kolos Kovalivka's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Veres Rivne 1.18 PPG, Kolos Kovalivka 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kolos Kovalivka win broke the near-deadlock. Veres Rivne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward. Kolos Kovalivka (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.