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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Ruh Lviv edge out SK Poltava 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ruh Lviv beat SK Poltava 1-2 at Zirka Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SK Poltava 0.69 xG and Ruh Lviv 1.34 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SK Poltava attack 0.74 / defence 1.51 against Ruh Lviv attack 0.69 / defence 0.82, drawn from 15/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SK Poltava 19% | Draw 29% | Ruh Lviv 52%, with Ruh Lviv to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SK Poltava 67%, Ruh Lviv 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SK Poltava's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Ruh Lviv's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Ruh Lviv arrived the stronger side — 1.07 PPG against 0.60. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Ruh Lviv (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.43 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights