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Poisson rates Ruh Lviv at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SK Poltava vs Ruh Lviv encounter.

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Match Analysis

SK Poltava host Ruh Lviv at Zirka Stadium in Premier League, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 14 December 2025 at 11:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Premier League games this season, SK Poltava have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for SK Poltava, so this record blends games from this season and last.

SK Poltava at Zirka Stadium this season: 1W 1D 5L from 7 home games — 0.57 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 2.14 conceded per game.

Ruh Lviv — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Ruh Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Ruh Lviv have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Ruh Lviv — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, SK Poltava have won 0, Ruh Lviv 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Aug 2025, ended 1–2 with Ruh Lviv winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

SK Poltava trading profile (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 33% of games.

Ruh Lviv trading profile (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SK Poltava 60% versus Ruh Lviv 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SK Poltava 67% | Ruh Lviv 40%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SK Poltava 0.69 xG and Ruh Lviv 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SK Poltava attack 0.741 / defence 1.510 | Ruh Lviv attack 0.691 / defence 0.825. League average goals — home 1.132 / away 1.286. SK Poltava's attack strength of 0.741 is below the league average — the 0.69 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 15 SK Poltava games / 45 Ruh Lviv games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: SK Poltava 19% | Draw 29% | Ruh Lviv 52%. Fair-value odds: SK Poltava 5.26 | Draw 3.45 | Ruh Lviv 1.92. Ruh Lviv hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Ruh Lviv as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ruh Lviv offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.03 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates corroborate: SK Poltava 43% | Ruh Lviv 20% BTTS from recent games.

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