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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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SK Poltava and Oleksandria share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SK Poltava and Oleksandria finished level at 3-3 at Zirka Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SK Poltava 0.84 xG and Oleksandria 1.54 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. SK Poltava beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Oleksandria outscored their 1.54 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SK Poltava attack 0.60 / defence 1.67 against Oleksandria attack 0.78 / defence 1.18, drawn from 21/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SK Poltava 21% | Draw 26% | Oleksandria 54%, with Oleksandria to win its most likely call at 54%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SK Poltava 67%, Oleksandria 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SK Poltava's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Oleksandria's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — SK Poltava 0.43 PPG, Oleksandria 0.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. SK Poltava (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.60 average — above their attacking norm. Oleksandria (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.70 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights