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Poisson model favours Shakhtar Donetsk (66%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Shakhtar Donetsk face Ruh Lviv.

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Analysis

Ruh Lviv make the trip to Arena Lviv to face Shakhtar Donetsk in Premier League, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Sunday 5 April 2026 at 13:30 UTC.

Current Form

Shakhtar Donetsk's overall Premier League record this term: 8W 2D 0L from 10 games (2.60 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.90 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Shakhtar Donetsk, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Shakhtar Donetsk's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 games at Arena Lviv this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Arena Lviv.

Ruh Lviv (all games): 4W 0D 6L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Ruh Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Ruh Lviv's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Form favours the hosts. Shakhtar Donetsk's 2.60 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Ruh Lviv's 1.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

Head-to-Head

Historically, Shakhtar Donetsk have had the better of this match-up — 5 wins from 8 meetings, with Ruh Lviv managing just 0 victories and 3 draws shared.

The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2025, ended 4–0 with Shakhtar Donetsk winning.

The historical record gives Shakhtar Donetsk a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 8 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading

Shakhtar Donetsk half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.

Ruh Lviv half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 28% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 16% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shakhtar Donetsk 44% versus Ruh Lviv 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shakhtar Donetsk 54% | Ruh Lviv 30%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Shakhtar Donetsk 1.73 xG and Ruh Lviv 0.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.526 / defence 0.720 | Ruh Lviv attack 0.628 / defence 0.961. League average goals — home 1.176 / away 1.207. Shakhtar Donetsk carry an above-average attack strength of 1.526 — their λ of 1.73 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Shakhtar Donetsk's defence rating of 0.720 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 50 Shakhtar Donetsk games / 51 Ruh Lviv games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Shakhtar Donetsk 66% | Draw 23% | Ruh Lviv 11%. Fair-value odds: Shakhtar Donetsk 1.52 | Draw 4.35 | Ruh Lviv 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Shakhtar Donetsk (66%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Ruh Lviv's lower xG of 0.55 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Shakhtar Donetsk at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.27 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 35% on No. Form rates corroborate: Shakhtar Donetsk 40% | Ruh Lviv 10% BTTS from recent games.

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