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Prediction vindicated as Shakhtar Donetsk edge out Polessya 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Shakhtar Donetsk beat Polessya 1-0 at Arena Lviv, Regular Season - 24, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Shakhtar Donetsk 1.33 xG and Polessya 1.17 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Polessya landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.54 / defence 0.71 against Polessya attack 1.44 / defence 0.70, drawn from 52/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Shakhtar Donetsk 40% | Draw 27% | Polessya 33%, with Shakhtar Donetsk to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shakhtar Donetsk 56%, Polessya 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Shakhtar Donetsk's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and duly kept one.

Polessya's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Shakhtar Donetsk arrived the stronger side — 2.17 PPG against 1.75. That form edge translated into the three points. Shakhtar Donetsk (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.76 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. Polessya (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.76 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights