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Dominant Shakhtar Donetsk run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Kudrivka.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Shakhtar Donetsk beat Kudrivka 4-0 at Arena Lviv, Regular Season - 10, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Shakhtar Donetsk 1.85 xG and Kudrivka 0.97 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Shakhtar Donetsk beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Kudrivka landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.15 / defence 1.06 against Kudrivka attack 0.69 / defence 1.50, drawn from 39/9 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Shakhtar Donetsk 57% | Draw 24% | Kudrivka 18%, with Shakhtar Donetsk to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shakhtar Donetsk 36%, Kudrivka 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Shakhtar Donetsk's trading profile (11 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and duly kept one.

Kudrivka's trading profile (11 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Shakhtar Donetsk arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.27. Form held, and they took the win. Shakhtar Donetsk (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Kudrivka (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights