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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Kolos Kovalivka cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Shakhtar Donetsk.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kolos Kovalivka beat Shakhtar Donetsk 2-4 at Arena Lviv, Regular Season - 25, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Shakhtar Donetsk 1.58 xG and Kolos Kovalivka 0.88 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Kolos Kovalivka outscored their 0.88 projection by 3.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.56 / defence 0.79 against Kolos Kovalivka attack 1.12 / defence 0.86, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Shakhtar Donetsk 54% | Draw 25% | Kolos Kovalivka 21%, with Shakhtar Donetsk to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Kolos Kovalivka win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shakhtar Donetsk 56%, Kolos Kovalivka 18%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Shakhtar Donetsk's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Kolos Kovalivka's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Shakhtar Donetsk arrived the stronger side — 2.30 PPG against 1.04. Form was overturned, with Kolos Kovalivka winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Shakhtar Donetsk (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Kolos Kovalivka (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights